Discussion Topic: Movies-on-disc - Brian Florian - December 15, 2008
The press loves to be sensational. Over and over we’ve seen Blu-Ray being gunned down with declarations of “disc is dead” and “a download-only future is right around the corner”. Well, I think not.
I admit that when HD-DVD closed its doors, I was one of the many saying “…that doesn’t mean Blu-Ray has won…” but I never said disc in general was going anywhere, just that Sony needed to get its act together…which for the most part they have, considering how the Blu-Ray section in stores and rental chains keeps creeping into space previously occupied by either CDs or DVDs.
Of course there is a bunch of people who would like to see disc disappear, but I contend it is a small slice of the market. They are predominantly the net-tech types who tend to move in their own circle. If you talk to one of them, they usually will say something like “everyone I know downloads everything….” and they assume that means everyone outside of their circle as well. The irony is that in my experience that same group also tend to be the ones doing the “illegitimate” downloading we keep hearing so much about (which might explain, in part at least, why they embrace a download-only life so fervently).
Sure, BlockBuster is crying hard times. These days, who isn’t? I routinely rent from BlockBuster and I’ll tell you they are not hurting that bad: just this past week I beheld a wall full of Batman Begins DVDs….all of which were already rented, and then had to wade through the crowd and stand in line to get rung in with my copy of yester-week’s new release. Rental is dead my foot! The only credible threat to BlockBuster is Rent-by-Mail which, though web-based by nature, is still a disc renting business.
But let’s admit for a moment that there is a momentum in place for disc rental alternatives. I can see the appeal behind Pay-Per-View, Video-on-Demand, and other more generic digital downloads, though for my part I cannot abide by the fact that I have to invest in often proprietary hardware and possibly a more expensive (ie faster) internet service just to take advantage. Screen Digest apparently forecasted recently that so called “online” movies will represent only 5% of home video spending….by 2012 at that! Disc it would seem not only has a future, but a solid one.
Even if we concede an eventual paradigm shift in the rental space, BUYING movies on disc is for all time, and that is guaranteed by human ego. If you look at why we watch a movie we’ve already seen, it ultimately is always in a vain attempt to recapture the experience we had when first seeing the piece. It’s a futile pursuit and we know it, yet we persevere anyway, generation after generation. We love to buy movies and pop them in at whim hoping it’ll be just like the first time. It never is but we enjoy them just the same, if in a different way. This eternal hunger I grant could conceivably be filled eventually by a download infrastructure, but that is only HALF the reason we buy movies and why downloads will never take the place of discs in this respect. Buying is about much more than just “having it on hand to watch whenever you want”. Sure, that’s a benefit of having a movie on disc, but its not the driving factor of the purchase.
Buying and owning a movie is a statement. It’s like wearing a “Save the Whales” t-shirt. If a movie has meaning for us we feel we owe it to the movie to own it. We tell ourselves “this movie is important enough to own”. If you own any number of movies, and take an honest look inside yourself, you’ll probably agree with me on this.
Are the Godfather movies good? Good enough to BUY? For those of us who have them in our collection the answer is an uncontested “You bet!”. Fans of, say, Lord of the Rings will have bought the movies just because they are fans, speak nothing of the really big fans who have to have the super-duper extended editions because if they didn’t, they wouldn’t be saying enough about how they feel about the movies.
The proof of this concept is in the EXPLOSION of the TV-Series-on-DVD market which caught a lot of us by surprise. People spend BIG money on TV shows they’ve already seen, most of which are still running in syndication (and almost always available “on-line”, legal or otherwise). People routinely spend well over $50 for just one season of a TV show! Why? Because they want to show the world (and by the world I mean themselves) that the show meant so much to them that they bought it.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not being derogatory. I have a movie collection built up entirely from my own ego as such.
Bottom line is you just don’t get the same affirmation from having a copy on a hard drive in a media server somewhere in your basement (even if you did acquire it legally). There is something magical, nay, powerful about having that slipcase on the shelf. If the world offers more download axis for buying movies, buying them on disc will become even MORE special. Imagine a friend telling you they bought/downloaded such and such a movie. “Ha!” you’ll say, “I bought it on Blu-Ray!” making you fell like a bigger, better movie buff than they.
With the holiday right around the corner, if you are reading this odds are good, VERY good that not only are you going to be giving at least someone some DVD or Blu-Ray movies, but that you are also going to get a handful in return.
Ultimately my view is that while electronic distribution may well erode some of the rental space, anyone calling the death knoll for Blu-Ray or disc in general is very much mistaken.
December 15th, 2008 at 11:32 pm
Great post, Brian, but the question is - aren’t people getting lazier and want things to get to their screen quicker and with less pain (e.g., standing in line)?
Personally, I only ever watch a movie once and I almost never watch the extras, they bore me silly. My kids, on the other hand, can never get enough of “bee movie” or “Horton hears a who!”. It would make perfect sense for me to purchase movies for them (short of the issue of my youngest destroying his own disks by scartching the heck out of them).
Personally, I could do fine with virtual purchases, just as I do on the iTunes store.
December 16th, 2008 at 5:52 am
I totally agree with the argument in this post. There will always be a market for those who collect, or simply like to “own” a tangible item. While I admit my purchasing habits have changed dramatically from the DVD days (partly due to the cost of Blu-Ray discs, and partly due the fact that due to my limited available free time, I prefer to watch films I haven’t seen before), I still went out and bought The Dark Knight because it was such a great film. And I definitely wanted to make that “statement”! The other thing is that unlike most DVD extras, there is much more room for real innovation in the Blu-Ray space with BD-Live. This week, I will be participating in the Dark Knight live event with Christopher Nolan, and am actually pretty excited about it. It really feels like attending an “event”, since there is a set time and place, and there will be thousands of others participating as well. These are the types of things that will allow the format to succeed. This may not be something intrinsic to a physical format, but by implementing it in this fashion, you can drive sales of that format. The bottom line here is that as long as the studios and consumer electronics companies can find a way to make a profit on a physical medium, they will exist, and because of the reasons discussed here, that market will be there for some time.
December 16th, 2008 at 8:09 am
I posed this question on a forum I am in, and by a wide margin, people prefer a “hard copy” v. “digital copy”. I love a good movie, but the reality is, if I buy it ($20), I may watch it once or twice….then onto a shelf it goes. Really, people! How many times can you watch Indiana Jones before you have your fill and never feel compelled to see it again…ever! A digital media (Vudu) can allow me the chance to see a movie on my time with “no wait”. IF i really love the movie and must own it, I can download to purchase and have it at my whim on a hard drive. It is cost efficient ($3.99) to pay per view than own. I have dozens of DVD’s that just sit patiently on my shelves….would that I could have the $$$ back on them and just use that cash to rent when I have the time and desire.
But alas! We are consumers by-golly and need to own and hold a product. And thus it will be for sometime into the immediate future.
December 16th, 2008 at 12:29 pm
I buy films and (select) TV series on disc (BD when it’s available). I buy titles I like (as I’ve seen them), titles I think I’ll like (on the recommendations of people I trust as well as by reading of them) and titles for use in my classes (I teach history and usually include a dose of history on film as it was my graduate research topic and is an ongoing research concern of mine).
Yes, some titles sit on my shelf for a while before being watched (or re-watched). However, one of the reasons I keep a shelf full of films is to share with friends and family. Whenever my father pays a visit, we have “movie nights” and it is gratifying to have a wide selection to offer him. I also bring along some movies when traveling (difficult to rent a film I like while I’m traveling).
Using the “download” model seems too risky (given the number of drive crashes I’ve suffered over the past 20 plus years). The discs don’t “crash”. And if I grow tired of a film (or give in to a “double dip”–not often, but it does happen), I have ready to hand gifts. And in a world where ISPs are capping downloads before adding fees (and hi-def movies that look as good as a BD take up A LOT of bandwidth/space), I think I’ll stick to the physical copy for a while yet.
I’m not entirely certain, though, that “ego” is as important as Brian argues. At least 1/3 of my collection is work related, and a number of them have been “blind buys” rather than purchases intended to validate my opinion of a particular title (film or TV). This is especially true of “bargain bin” purchases that are frequently cheaper than rentals. I don’t deny ego plays a role in wanting “a collection”, but I don’t think I’m “making a statement” on the order of “save the whales” when I buy a film (anymore than when I buy music or books).
December 16th, 2008 at 2:26 pm
With the recent price drops in HDTVs, projectors, surround receivers and other home theater hardware, it is now possible for most of us to exceed the average movie theater at home. There are NO quality cinemas anywhere near me so I have turned to the home to get my movie fix. For me, this means movies on disc, preferably Blu-ray. I’m just not willing to sacrifice quality for convenience. I imagine many other Secrets readers feel the same. At some point, internet downloads will tap out available bandwidth and the only solution will be more compression! Cable and satellite have potential but the hardware still has room to improve. Brian, I’m so glad to hear your opinion that disc isn’t dead, dying or even getting the sniffles. I couldn’t agree more. I will always wait for the DVD or Blu-ray before I watch a movie. In a few months, I’ll have gone two years without entering a cinema. Long live Blu-ray!
December 19th, 2008 at 6:40 am
It my group of people Brian is probably referring to, on many occasions I have told Brain I believe physically media is dying. It won’t happen over night but it is going to happen. My Parents are the best example. for the last 25 years my Parents have been watching movies at home, first it was a VCR with a wired remote (weren’t those fun), then a VCR with a wireless remote, then their first DVD player. In general they rented movies, and only really purchased movies for each other at Christmas. However, in last 3-4 years I don’t think my parents have gone to the video rental store at all. Instead they watch Video on Demand (VOD) almost exclusively when it comes to movies (or borrow media from me, I still buy media even though I believe it is dying). In their case the content arrives via satellite/PVR, but could have just as easily been any other form of distribution delivered directly to the home without the need to get up and drive to the Video Store. The also pay for this typically $4-5 a movie and don’t have any problem with that.
There was an interesting research report from Video Business that suggested a similar trend.
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6623292.html
In the end it won’t be the people downloading from the internet with illegal content the kill physical media. It is the consumers like my parents that simple want a way to get more content to their homes with a press of a button…. Remember Brian in this world you will never drive to the video store to discover all copies of Batman are already rented.
Sandy
December 19th, 2008 at 7:14 am
Great post. I think the pride of physical ownership is difficult to deny. Although we are seeing it decline in music, I think it is a result, not a cause, of a successful digital distribution model.
The difficulty facing digital movie distribution is that, unlike music, the trend has been toward higher bitrate content encodes which places additional burden on the distribution network. Digital music distribution had the benefit of widespread acceptance of low quality mp3s as a delivery benchmark.
Digital video distribution isn’t competing against highly compressed QVGA files. The content owners haven’t realized that reduced quality of deliver must be accompanied by some additional value to the customer whether through reduced price, or increased convenience. Unfortunately, to this point, the studios seemingly provide a lower value product at equivalent (or higher) pricing.
Combine the above with the increasing restrictions on network bandwidth imposed by the ISPs. North America, for numerous reasons, seems mired with a combination of sub-par speed and usage caps. Consider for a moment that with my connection (7 Mbps), assuming I could max out the speed to the distributor, it would take over 16 hours to download a single BD50. At that point though, I would nearly have maxed out my available usage for the month as well. On top of the problems the studios create for themselves by having a weak value proposition, the biggest factor outside of their control and possibly biggest barrier to successful digital movie distribution is the network itself.
December 19th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
I admit to running the phrase ‘this is important enough to own’ in my head when purchasing DVD’s. Both for making a statement about me and what I care about as well as sending a few dollars to the artists involved to support them. In the case of the hollywood blockbusters I own the dollar part doesn’t really apply of course, they should send me some dollars.
Most of the movies I’ve bought will not get repeated viewings but its good to have them for guests as previous posters have said. I’ve noticed that the ones I do watch repeatedly become like music - the flow of the scenes seems to entertain as much as the story.
I suppose I already have made a move towards downloading as I’ve saved and watched several movies on the DVR. If it weren’t for this fact I would have said that discs are better because of the special features, but the fact is I’m using the DVR for the convenience. I hope discs don’t go away, I like the idea of having a collection and a collection on computer hard drive is not as fun to look at nor is it secure (computer discs crash).
December 27th, 2008 at 4:13 pm
It’s a but ironic I should come across this now - I was just sitting here earlier wondering what to watch and as a result considering this - massive collection of DVDs on the shelf, massive collection of downloaded material - I knew what I wanted was in the DVD collection (this time anyway), but the effort of getting it out, getting the TV and player on, navigating slow loading menus and watching studio idents felt like a hassle.
Give me download anyday - double click, skip the opening credits - no menus, no hassle finding things - just in my chair, watch it on the medium most accessible to my here and now, no control over-burden (which is what 2 or 3 remotes really are).
Give me three clicks instead of two or three hundred-button remotes anyday.
In case anyone is wondering, I did get up and get the DVD (I’m not actually as lazy as I might sound), but I did consider downloading it instead first. If there are more people like me, who would rather download something that’s just across the room for the ease it provides, the disc will be dead and we’ll all be remembering them as cassettes with a pleasing shine in just two or three years time - people who want the physical item will be considered collectors, and as such a very niche market, with an equally small supplier base.
I haven’t watched anything on TV for four years - I don’t need to fiddle with TiVo, Sky + and the like - I’m in complete control and at the cost of a few mouse clicks I can absent mindedly make while I take a few minutes break from work/checking e-mails, the height of topicality for my life – it’s like using the internet – you think “how does xyz work” and get the answer bookmarked for later.
I think what studios are missing out on is the enormous advertising potential available to the internet media – pause the show, click your mouse over the purchasable material, get directed to the affiliate vendor (maybe even a price comparison site) and voila – that table, shirt, background music etc. is delivered to your door within 3 working days.
Disc’s can’t provide that kind of lifestyle enhancement, but given a bit of time the internet can, and it can cost the consumer (in terms of downloads) next to nothing (perhaps even free) whilst still keeping the studio profit margins in the green through indirect advertising and selling.
Of course a future like that will impact on content, but then again, today advertising already does.
January 6th, 2009 at 12:18 pm
>Give me download anyday - double click, skip the opening credits - no menus, no hassle finding things - just in my chair, watch it on the medium most accessible to my here and now, no control over-burden (which is what 2 or 3 remotes really are).
Give me three clicks instead of two or three hundred-button remotes anyday.
Really? My cable provider’s VOD service is excrutiating to use. It’s incredibly slow, you need many button presses to get anywhere, and their selection is extremely limited.
Where’s the download service that’s going to give me 1080p, DTS-HD MA and DD TrueHD? I was watching the Mummy 3 and there’s some sections that are encoded at 49 Mb/s. This is about five times the total bandwidth of my cable internet.
I’m not going to accept lower quality. If Blu-Ray goes the way of the dodo, I’m throwing away all my HT gear and finding another hobby.
January 7th, 2009 at 4:01 am
You can count me among those that love owning a physical copy of whatever I want to watch, or listen to, even as the downloads get better. Video on Demand is great for me when I want to catch up on a TV show that might be available to me On Demand, or more recently I’ve started to just watch many shows on Hulu through my Playstation3 if I failed to record it (or more often, my cable company DVR failed to record when I asked it to).
For a movie, and even more one that I want to watch more than once in the future, it will be a long time until I want to give up on a physical media. First, I’d need the downloaded version to offer the same quality as the disc with the same quick response (for extras and other features), which means downloading and storing a whole 50 GB disc at this point. While my ISP hasn’t instituted a bandwidth cap in my area yet, they have started to test them in certain areas of the country with a typical cap of around 50 GB a month. That’s a single movie currently! Additionally that download would take over a day (as I recently pulled down a 40 GB download for work last month) and slow down everything else I might want to do online while it does that in the background.
After that, I’d need some very large storage medium for these that is resistant to failure, like a RAID array, so that if a hard drive dies, I don’t lose my whole movie collection and spend the next two months downloading it again. I’ve started on a project to rip my whole DVD collection so I can view them all from a single media PC in my living room, but if that hard drive fails, I own the discs and can just rip them again. Downloading every title again would kill my connection for weeks, and what if the provider of these stops offering them, or changes the format they offer these titles in to something I don’t like? Then my collection might be wiped out and I have no good way to replace it.
Finally, I just like owning the media. I like having my music collection displayed in CD’s and records on the shelves so people can browse through and listen to things they haven’t heard, or borrow an album to see if they enjoy it. I might have the entire thing ripped to a network drive so I can listen to anything easily while I work, but I still like having the actual media out there. I also can’t count how many people have borrowed my wife’s collection of Gilmore Girls DVD’s. Most of her friends have seen the series, but many had not, and many never would have if they had to purchase it online instead of being able to borrow the set from her and learning to love it, then buying the sets themselves.
So, while downloadable content has a place for me (Nine Inch Nails, who offered their last album in a better-than-CD quality 24 bit, 96 KHz FLAC download seems to know how to take advantage of this better than anyone else), I don’t see it taking over from physical media anytime soon for me.
January 7th, 2009 at 5:36 am
Hey Mr. Redding, can I have all your HT stuff when Blu-ray tanks?
I agree with Mr. Florian’s argument for the most part, but eventually change will come and the fanboys of today who absolutely insist on collecting everything will be left behind by whatever new technology comes along (and they will be absolutely ELATED at the prospect of buying so many obsolete BDs for so little money!), progress is second only to death and taxes in life’s certainties, the million dollar question is, will it be replaced by another physical media (like tiny flash memory cards) or by something like downloads? One thing is certain, if its downloads then telecom-internet providers have a LONG way to go (and better get started quick because its already behind and will lose serious ground when 4K gets here!) because the technology won’t pause to let infractructure catch up.